Bitcoin Halving 2024: Quantifying the Supply Shock Effect
We analyzed all 3 previous halvings. Average post-halving return: +283% over 18 months. But this cycle has key differences.
James Wright, PhDQuantitative Research Lead
7 min readFact-checked
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Historical Halving Performance
| Halving | Date | Price at Halving | Peak After | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | Nov 2012 | $12 | $1,100 | +9,067% |
| 2nd | Jul 2016 | $650 | $19,700 | +2,931% |
| 3rd | May 2020 | $8,700 | $69,000 | +693% |
| 4th | Apr 2024 | $64,000 | TBD | TBD |
The Diminishing Returns Pattern
Each cycle shows roughly 75-80% lower peak returns. This suggests a maturing asset class converging toward traditional risk premiums.
Bottom Line
The halving is bullish structurally, but don't expect 2020-level returns. A reasonable range: +100-200% over 12-18 months post-halving.
About the Author
James Wright, PhD
Quantitative Research Lead
PhD, MIT
PhD in Financial Mathematics from MIT. 8 years building quantitative models for hedge funds. Expert in algorithmic strategy and risk management.
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